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UFC title matchup projections

How do analytics and oddsmakers view the title fights for UFC champions in 2024?

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What do the analytics say about the championship fights in 2024? ​​Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view.

Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the incumbent champ matches.

These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight versus the relative favorability running from the riskiest to the best matchup.

Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at three future title fights that are currently scheduled, along with a fight that's likely to get booked. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.

Confirmed UFC championship bouts Women's flyweight title: Alexa Grasso (c) vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3, Date TBD

Note: This bout has not yet been booked, but Grasso and Shevchenko have been named coaches on the next season of "The Ultimate Fighter," in the expectation that they will meet in the Octagon later this year to complete their trilogy.

Analysis: +0.15, favorable for Grasso

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: No surprise that the models like Grasso, given they've backed her twice already as a sizable underdog against Shevchenko. The striking metrics of these two are very close. Shevchenko has elite defensive avoidance at range, but Grasso presses at a better pace and lands more strikes per minute. Grasso's poor defense is notable, but with Shevchenko now 36, and Grasso having already scored a knockdown in their last fight, the power edge may lean Grasso. Her submission game is also much more dangerous, as Shevchenko has already learned.

Parker on where the bettors lean: Bet on "Bullet." In their first fight, Shevchenko was well on her way to a successful title defense until she made a grave mistake that cost her the belt. In the rematch at UFC 285, I scored the fight for Shevchenko, although the three judges scored it as a draw, thus leaving Grasso as champion. I still believe Shevchenko is the better fighter, no matter where the fight goes in the Octagon. And it's hard to imagine she doesn't correct past mistakes in the trilogy bout. Grasso is dangerous if she can get her opponent's back, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should go back to Kyrgyzstan.

Projections soon to come Lightweight title: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Dustin Poirier, UFC 302 on June 1 Main event: Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler, UFC 303 on June 29 Interim heavyweight title: Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Curtis Blaydes 2, UFC 304 on July 27 Middleweight title: Leon Edwards (c) vs. Belal Muhammad 2, UFC 304 on July 27