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The NBA semifinals continue Tuesday night, and the pressure is on for all four teams. In a series tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series 82% of the time.
How will the New York Knicks respond after the Indiana Pacers beat them by 32 points in Game 4? And will the Denver Nuggets be the first to defend home court in the series against the Minnesota Timberwolves?
It will be fun to watch, and here are four bets that immediately caught my attention.
Jalen Brunson OVER 31.5 points. With the series tied, the Knicks face a crucial Game 5 at Madison Square Garden after a tough loss in Game 4. Without forward OG Anunoby, and showing signs of fatigue in Game 4 due to their starters playing heavy minutes, the Knicks need a strong start and to rely heavily on Brunson, their leading scorer. Despite surpassing this line only once in the series, Brunson has shown consistency, clearing it in 60% of his past 20 games.
Pascal Siakam OVER 19.5 points. The Knicks have struggled to contain Siakam without Anunoby. While Siakam fell short of this line in Game 4, the context matters. Siakam scored 26 points in 30.6 minutes in Game 3. Even in a blowout win in Game 4, he scored 14 points in just 22.4 minutes. With the Pacers maintaining a fast pace, Siakam should see plenty of scoring chances in what the spread implies will be a close game. He has attempted 14 or more field goals in three of the four games in this series.
Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 points, rebounds and assists. The line might seem high, but Game 5 is crucial for the Nuggets. They've found ways to exploit the Timberwolves' defense, and playing in Denver gives them an edge. Jokic has averaged only 46.2 points, rebounds and assists so far in this series, but there's potential for him to exceed that Tuesday night. Aaron Gordon should get more defensive attention after scoring 20 or more points in two of the past three games. Minnesota will need to allocate a defender to mark Gordon, and there's a good chance it won't be Gobert, which bodes well for Jokic. There is also a strong chance this game exceeds the 205.5 point total.
Anthony Edwards OVER 5.5 assists. The Wolves need everyone involved to stand a chance against the Nuggets; even if Edwards drops 40 points, that doesn't guarantee a victory. He has already racked up five or more assists in three of the four games this series. In Game 2, his seven assists fueled Minnesota's best performance yet. Also, Edwards has averaged 8.5 potential assists per game this series.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
East semifinals - Game 5
8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
Line: Knicks (-1.5) Total: 216.5
Money Line: Pacers (+100), Knicks (-120)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 1.3, straight up 54%, 222.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD - Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT - Shoulder)
Knicks: OG Anunoby, (OUT - Hamstring); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT - Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT - Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
West semifinals - Game 5
10:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)
Line: Nuggets (-3.5) Total: 206.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+155), Nuggets (-185)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 1.8, straight up 56%, 206.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - Knee)
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Alonso Martinez and Hannes Wolf had a goal each in the first half as New York City FC dealt the Philadelphia Union another loss at home, winning 2-1 on Wednesday in Chester, Pa.
NYCFC (6-5-2, 20 points), who won just once in its first seven matches, is 5-1-2 over their past eight matches. The Union (3-4-5, 14 points) have now dropped four in a row at Subaru Park, their longest home losing streak in club history.
Julian Carranza scored Philadelphia's goal.
Martinez staked New York City to an early lead, as he stuck a Santiago Rodriguez cross past Oliver Semmle for a 1-0 lead in the second minute.
Philadelphia controlled much of the play for the remainder of the half, but NYCFC doubled its lead in the second minute of first-half stoppage time. A free kick from Hannes Wolf to the right of the Union box sailed into the far upper left corner to make it 2-0 just minutes before halftime.
The Union pulled one back in the 47th minute, as Carranza rifled a free kick of his own past Matt Freese to cut the New York City lead to 2-1. They appeared to have salvaged an equalizer in second-half stoppage time, but Jack Elliott's goal was disallowed by an offside call.
That was close as Philadelphia got en route to yet another home defeat, while seeing its winless streak reach six matches (0-4-2). They have not won since a 2-1 decision against Nashville SC on April 6.
--Field Level Media
